The final trailer for 'Rogue One: A Star Wars Story,' starring Felicity Jones, Diego Luna and Ben Mendelsohn. Lucasfilm
Strap yourself in: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story is about to make the jump to box-office light speed in its weekend opening.
The first standalone movie in the mighty Star Warsfranchise begins its theater run with Thursday night previews before opening Friday in 4,100 North American theaters, a Walt Disney Studios record. The question isn't whether Rogue One will be a hit, but how massive a hit?
"The $100 million opening in the holiday season is very rare," says Jeff Bock, senior box-office analyst for Exhibitor Relations. "But guess what? This is Star Wars. And this is the perfect time to drop a Star Wars movie. Rogue One going to obliterate everything in its path. They’re rolling in the Death Star for movie competition."
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The studio projects a $120 million to $150 million opening domestically for Rogue One, a prequel story featuring the Rebels who stole the plans to the Death Star featured in 1977's original Star Wars: Episode IV — A New Hope.
Disney long ago conceded that Rogue One, starring Felicity Jones as Jyn Erso and Diego Luna as Cassian Andor, will not reach the insane heights of last December's Star Wars: The Force Awakens.
The Force Awakens destroyed box-office records when it opened Dec.18 with a $248 million weekend on its way to $2 billion worldwide. After last Saturday's Rogue Oneworld premiere left the audience cheering, Disney executives are feeling the force again.
Cassian Andor (Diego Luna, from left), Jyn Erso (Felicity Jones) and K-2SO (Alan Tudyk) are new characters introduced to the 'Star Wars' universe in 'Rogue One: A Star Wars Story.' (Photo: Jonathan Olley)
"We've got a lot of momentum owing to a number of factors, from the goodwill created by The Force Awakens to the great buzz and reviews coming out of our premiere," says Dave Hollis, Disney's theatrical distribution chief. "We certainly can't expect Force Awakens-level numbers, but Rogue One has everything going for it."
Bock says he believes the studio's estimates are expectation-preserving conservative, offering his own $168 million opening prediction. Rogue One could even break through as the largest 2016 opening weekend — beating Captain America: Civil War's $179.1 million summer weekend haul.
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The winds dragging Rogue One include the winter holiday, which isn't traditionally a season for blockbusters because it's saturated with new releases and holiday diversions. Disney cites a key statistic: Only 13% of students will be out of school on opening day, far fewer than when summer popcorn movies arrive.
Cassian Andor (Diego Luna) is part of the Rebel Alliance in 'Rogue One: A Star Wars Story.' (Photo: Jonathan Olley)
But Rogue One has surged with strong presales. When tickets became available Nov. 28, Fandango.com had its second-highest first-day sales (behind only — wait for it — The Force Awakens).
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The momentum will carry forward. A major benefit to opening in December is that holiday hits last longer in theaters, rolling through weaker January competition. As a result, comScore senior media analyst Paul Dergarabedian says he believes Rogue One could vie for the largest total box office of any film opening in 2016, eyeing Finding Dory's $486.3 million summer mark.
"Rogue One is not the follow up to The Force Awakens and it's not trying to be. But it's going to be a huge movie on its own terms that we are going to be talking about for a long time," Dergarabedian says.
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