Who will win a Golden Globe — and who should?

In a city where everyone is trying to make it, an aspiring actress and her jazz musician boyfriend struggle to make ends meet. Listen as Emma Stone shows off her singing talent in this romantic musical with an old-Hollywood feel. USA TODAY NETWORK

(Photo: David Bornfriend)

Awards season kicks into another gear this weekend at the 74th annual Golden Globes, where the Hollywood Foreign Press Association fetes its favorite films — and we get the first glimpse at what could be true Oscar contenders. USA TODAY predicts who will win and suggests who should win in the top movie categories at the ceremony emceed by Jimmy Fallon (NBC, Sunday, 8 p.m. ET/5 PT).

Drama

Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

Will win: Moonlight

Should win: Manchester by the Sea

Without front-runner La La Land in the mix, we’ll get to see its major Oscar best-picture competition take home some gold — most likely Moonlight, the acclaimed character study following the life of a gay black man. Yet Manchester, a drama about a New England family beset by tragedy, is the real standout of this pack with its emotional power.

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The L.A. freeway becomes ground zero for the opening dance number of ‘La La Land.’ (Photo: Dale Robinette)

Comedy or musical

20th Century Women
Deadpool
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land
Sing Street

Will win/should win: La La Land

Deadpool‘s appearance here gives the ceremony some novelty, and if this was “best coming-of-age ’80s Irish musical,” Sing Street would rule the category. Instead, expect the vaunted La La Land to sing and dance the night away with a new trophy.

Casey Affleck is a handyman who returns to his New England hometown in ‘Manchester by the Sea.’ (Photo: Claire Folger)

Actor, drama

Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

Will win/should win: Casey Affleck

The foreign press loves big names, so Washington has a shot as Fences‘ domineering former baseball star. Just as 2016 was Leonardo DiCaprio’s turn to round the bases toward Oscar glory, though, now it’s Casey at the bat — and deservedly so, since Affleck smacks a homer with Manchester‘s most heartbreaking and multilayered performance.

Natalie Portman plays the title first lady of ‘Jackie.’ (Photo: Bill Gray)

Actress, drama

Amy Adams, Arrival
Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie

Will win: Isabelle Huppert

Should win: Natalie Portman

Playing first lady Jackie Kennedy in the turmoil following JFK’s assassination, Portman’s effort is a thing of beauty. But an American icon may not resonate as much with the HFPA, so Huppert is a worthy upset pick: The French actress’ complicated rape victim is the best part about the psychological thriller Elle.

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Colin Farrell stars as a man hoping to find love before he’s turned into a crustacean in ‘The Lobster.’ (Photo: Despina Spyrou)

Actor, comedy or musical

Colin Farrell, The Lobster
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Jonah Hill, War Dogs
Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool

Will win: Ryan Gosling

Should win: Colin Farrell

Most of the heavyweights are in the drama category so Gosling should have a clear path hoofing it to victory as La La Land‘s romantically crabby jazz man. Worth consideration, on other hand, is the quirky nuance Farrell exhibits in the The Lobster as a man doomed to life as a crustacean if he doesn’t find love in 45 days.

Emma Stone stars as an aspiring actress with a story to tell in ‘La La Land.’ (Photo: Lionsgate)

Actress, comedy or musical

Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Lily Collins, Rules Don’t Apply
Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Will win/should win: Emma Stone

The category runs the gamut of young talent and veteran thespians, with Steinfeld standing toe to toe with legends like Bening and Streep. The head of this class? Stone, whose aspiring actress finding love in La La Land gives the Hollywood musical its heart, soul and even a literal showstopper.

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Mahershala Ali stars as a drug-dealing father figure in ‘Moonlight.’ (Photo: David Bornfriend)

Supporting actor

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Simon Helberg, Florence Foster Jenkins
Dev Patel, Lion
Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals

Will win/should win: Mahershala Ali

Bridges’ High Water Texas Ranger is a hoot and Patel’s Lion journey is a weepy one, but this is Ali’s Globe to lose. While only in a third of Moonlight, he showcases skill and artistry as a kindhearted drug dealer who becomes a father figure for an outcast boy.

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Denzel Washington and Viola Davis play a working-class Pittsburgh couple in ‘Fences.’ (Photo: David Lee)

Supporting actress

Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Will win/should win: Viola Davis

It’s the most talent-packed category of them all — as well as the most diverse. All five actresses are knockouts playing parents in a variety of emotional circumstances, personal and professional, but Davis is next level as a 1950s mom who lives a calm home life until raging against patriarchal repression.

THE GLITZ AND GLAMOR OF THE GOLDEN GLOBESStallone sisters become Miss Golden Globes | 0:53

The daughters of Sylvester Stallone – Sophia, Scarlett and Sistine – discuss preparing for their roles as Miss Golden Globes and say they won’t be attending the Presidential inauguration as they’re “not really into all of that.” (Jan. 5) AP

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